The US solar industry experienced project delays and cancellations when anti-dumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) tariff enforcement threatened supply in the past. Another round may be on the way soon, according to Roth Capital Partners.

A recent industry note from Philip Shen, managing director of Roth Capital Partners, warned that the United States could soon face another round of tariffs.

The note said that based on new regulations from the US Department of Commerce, new AD/CVD cases could be filed as soon as April 25.

AD/CVD laws assess tariffs on goods that are found to be dodging import duties by dumping products in other countries before shipping them to the United States. In past AD/CVD proceedings, four Southeastern Asian countries – Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and Malaysia, which were responsible for roughly 80% of the US supply of solar components – were accused of harboring dumped products from China.

Tariffs of components found in violation ranged as high as 50% to 250% of the cost of shipped goods. The looming threat of tariffs led to high levels of risk and uncertainty in the market, and about 20% of utility-scale solar capacity was delayed or canceled in the first half of 2022 due to this risk. In June 2022, US President Joe Biden placed a two-year pause on new solar AD/CVD tariffs, which are set to expire this summer.

Roth said it remains “difficult to gauge” how high the tariffs could be in the new case later this month.

An industry contact told Roth that the petitions for AD/CVD cases will likely occur as soon as possible after April 25, because petitioners “want AD/CVD preliminary decisions to be coming out during the heat of election season.”

Roth also noted that it is possible that India will join the four Southeastern Asian nations in this round of AD/CVD investigations.