If India maintains its current momentum and implements announced projects, it will achieve an annual green hydrogen demand of 2.85 MMT by 2030, according to SAREP. The transition will require a total investment of $57.6 billion.

The report states that the fertilizer and export sectors will account for nearly 37% (1.02 MMT) and 29% (0.81 MMT) of the total 2.85 MMT green hydrogen demand.

In the base case scenario, the report authors assumed that 10% of India's refineries would switch to green hydrogen, 10% of existing city gas distribution pipelines would be blended with green hydrogen, 50% of ammonia-based fertilizer imports would be replaced with domestic green ammonia, and the country would meet 6% of its demand from target importing countries by 2030.

To meet these green hydrogen demand estimates, the report says India will need 62 GW of additional renewable energy capacity, 29 GW of electrolyzer capacity, and 11 MMT per annum of ammonia infrastructure. This represents an estimated investment need of $36 billion, $15 billion, and $6 billion, respectively, by 2030.

Multiple oil public sector undertakings (PSUs) have announced internal targets for the adoption of green hydrogen. The report authors considered internal targets from leading oil PSUs in arriving at the estimates from oil refining and natural gas blending industries.