The ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab Al-Mandab Strait has sparked a regional pipeline project boom, as countries seek to diversify export routes for oil and gas.

Since the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February, several major pipeline projects have been announced, while others are being revived or accelerated.

Countries that are participating in this regional pipeline boom include Iraq, Syria and Egypt.

While the regional conflict has changed the dynamics within the oil and gas sectors of each of these countries in different ways, all of them see major pipeline projects as a key part of their strategic response to the conflict.

Iraq is one of the region’s oil exporters that has been hit the hardest by the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Prior to the start of the regional conflict, the country was routing 94% of its total exports through the strait, with about 3.4 million barrels a day (b/d) being exported through its southern ports at the start of the year.

At the same time, about 200,000 b/d was being exported via the Iraq-Turkiye Pipeline (ITP) in the north of the country.

In the wake of the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq has increased the volumes being exported via the ITP and has boosted its crude exports by truck through Syria.

Earlier this month, domestic news outlets reported that Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Organisation is exporting 500,000 b/d through the ITP.

The daily exports consist of 125,000 barrels of Kirkuk crude, 175,000-200,000 barrels of Kurdistan Region crude and about 200,000 barrels of Basra crude, according to the reports.

The Basra oil reaches collection stations at Sarallu and Khurmala by truck and from there is pumped north to Ceyhan in Turkiye.

The volume of crude exported from Iraq by truck to the Syrian port of Baniyas has risen significantly in recent months.

In October, Youssef Qablawi, the chief executive of the state-owned Syrian Petroleum Company, said that about 1,000 trucks were transporting fuel oil to Syria each day, with each truck carrying about 220 barrels.

This represents exports of 220,000 b/d, which is a significant volume for Iraq, but transporting crude by truck is much more expensive than using a pipeline.

Because of this, Iraq sees pipeline projects as a long-term solution to its reliance on the Strait of Hormuz and is rapidly pushing ahead with projects that are designed to replace exports currently transported by road, as well as increasing the volumes that can be exported via both Syria and Turkiye.

Earlier this month, it is reported that the governments of Iraq and Syria, state-owned oil companies and a consortium led by Qatar’s UCC are currently discussing the terms of a deal for four interconnected pipeline packages that are expected to have a total value of about $5bn.

Stakeholders expect a contract to be signed before the end of the year that will make the UCC-led coalition the selected developer responsible for tendering engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts for the project.

The consortium includes US-based Chevron, investment company TI Capital and France’s TotalEnergies.

The proposed plan will use a fast-track framework to bring the pipelines online as quickly as possible.

Iraq and Saudi Arabia are also considering reviving an old pipeline route between the Zubair oil field in Basra and the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

Operations of this 1,568-kilometre (km) pipeline were halted in August 1990 following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and the onset of the Gulf War.

At the end of October, Saudi Arabia granted preliminary approval to revive the joint oil export pipeline project, according to a report published by Saudi Arabia’s Shafaq News, which cited anonymous sources.

If the pipeline is reinstated, it could allow Iraq to export oil via the Red Sea, reducing its reliance on the Strait of Hormuz.

The pipeline was originally built at a cost of more than $2.6bn and featured a large network of storage tanks and offshore loading terminals.

Syrian strategy

In addition to its involvement in Iraq’s strategic export pipeline project, Qatar’s UCC is developing a pipeline project in Syria that will increase the country’s ability to deal with future supply disruptions.

On 30 September, UCC announced that it has , which will extend 186km between Homs and Aleppo.

The 36-inch pipeline will have a transmission capacity of up to 11 million cubic metres a day (cm/d) of gas and will connect gas networks in Jordan to those in Turkiye via Syria.

In its announcement, UCC said that the project is scheduled for completion within 22 months and will contribute to strengthening Syria’s gas infrastructure; enhancing the capacity of its gas transmission network; and supporting regional connectivity with Jordan, Turkiye and Lebanon.

Hisham Al-Saleh, Syrian Petroleum Company’s deputy chief executive for the gas sector, has said that the project includes the installation of three compressors in Furqlus, which will allow gas to be transported in both directions between Turkiye and Jordan.

Speaking to the state-owned Syrian Arab News Agency, he said that the project will add an estimated 8 million cubic metres of storage capacity to the Syrian gas network, providing greater flexibility in managing gas production and use.

Egypt is also ramping up pipeline project activity in order to increase the number of oil and gas links that it has with neighbouring countries.

The North African nation has long had ambitions to try and become a major regional energy hub.

These plans have been given a boost by the ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab Al-Mandab Strait, which has reduced exports from nations like Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Concerns about the reliability of exports from Iraq and the GCC have led to increased investment in oil and gas infrastructure in countries that are not reliant on these waterways to transport hydrocarbons.

In recent months, significant progress has been made on an integrated project that was launched in order to export offshore gas reserves in Cyprus via Egyptian energy infrastructure.

In October, Italian oil and gas company Eni signed the main EPC and drilling contracts for the project, which will develop the Cronos field.

The project includes contracts with several companies that will develop infrastructure in both Egypt and Cyprus.

The awards include a $170m contract that has been won by Egypt’s Petrojet for a new onshore gas pipeline in Egypt that will help to transport gas to Egypt’s Damietta liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility.

Separately, US-based Baker Hughes signed a contract for the design, procurement and construction of subsea production systems, including associated equipment and control systems.

In September, it was announced that US-headquartered McDermott will carry out offshore work for the project, including the transportation, installation and connection of subsea pipelines and equipment.

The Cronos development project will significantly increase the volume of gas being imported into Egypt, where it can be exported as LNG as well as helping to meet domestic demand.

On top of the major pipeline project allowing the importation of gas from Cyprus, Cairo is also looking at other regional pipeline projects, including gas links to Libya.

In a statement released earlier this month, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said that a Libyan team will visit ⁠Cairo soon to continue technical talks about the gas pipelines, as well as other energy projects, with Egypt’s petroleum and electricity ministers.

Pipeline problems

While the planned oil pipeline projects in Iraq are seen as a possible solution to the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, they are also likely to face problems relating to the importation of necessary equipment that would normally be shipped through the waterway.

The Common Seawater Supply Project, designed to bring water from the sea to inject into oil fields, is currently behind schedule, largely because of problems importing the pipeline segments through the strait.

This issue could plague other planned pipeline projects in Iraq if the disruption to shipping continues, forcing contractors to use other, more costly, import routes.

Challenging conditions

Even when Iraq’s major export pipeline projects are completed, they may fail to resolve the country’s oil export problems to the extent many are expecting.

While the export pipelines will go some way towards diversifying away from reliance on exports through waterways where oil and gas tankers are vulnerable to militant attacks, many industry insiders say Iraq could just be replacing one vulnerable export route with another.

Oil pipelines in the Middle East and North Africa region have a long history of suffering attacks and often stretch long distances through remote regions where they are difficult to defend.

Ultimately, it is likely that finding a diplomatic solution to the regional conflict will be the only way that Iraq can reliably increase its oil exports in the long term.