Although Brazil continues to consolidate its position as a regional solar powerhouse, particularly in distributed generation, 2025 will mark a pause in the country's growth pace, with the market increasing only marginally to 19.2 GW, compared to 18.9 GW in 2024, according to SolarPower Europe's “Global Solar Power Market Outlook 2025-2029” report.

This stagnation will be primarily due to adjustments to self-consumption regulations and delays in grid connections for distributed generation. Transmission infrastructure limitations are notable challenges for large-scale projects. On the positive side, new energy storage regulations in 2025 are likely to further stimulate the sector.

Combining data from Absolar and official projections from the Brazilian Energy Research Corporation (EPE), cumulative installed solar PV capacity in Brazil by 2029 is expected to reach between 90 GW in the Conservative Scenario and 107.6 GW in the Optimistic Scenario. For distributed generation, cumulative installed capacity by 2029 is projected to range between 54.2 GW and 63.9 GW. Regarding centralized generation, Absolar estimates an average annual capacity of between 3.7 GW and 5.3 GW by 2029.

Brazil installed a record 18.9 GW of new solar capacity last year. However, after two years of very strong growth (60%-81%) in 2021-2022 and another 15% increase that made the country the third-largest solar energy market in 2023, the 21% growth recorded in 2024 was not enough to keep it on the podium and relegated the country to fourth place worldwide, behind India (30.7 GW), the United States (50 GW) and China (329 GW).

High electricity prices, abundant solar resources, auctions and favorable net metering standards underpinned the country's success in the sector through 2024. Despite challenging macroeconomic conditions, increased import tariffs on solar PV modules in 2024, and high curtailment rates, the market has outperformed government forecasts.