Poland’s cumulative installed PV capacity is expected to have surpassed 21 GW by the end of 2024, according to figures from the country’s Instytut Energetyki Odnawialnej (IEO).

Grzegorz Wiśniewski, president of the board of the institute, told pv magazine that total capacity was almost 20.7 GW at the end of November 2024, indicating that the 21 GW threshold should be passed once full statistics for last year become available.

If this materializes, Poland will have added around 4 GW of new capacity in 2024, compared to 4.9 GW in 2023, representing a growth rate of 23%, according to IEO’s figures.

Wiśniewski said the large-scale segment was the biggest contributor to the growth of Poland’s solar market last year, continuing a trend which first began in 2023 when the prosumer market began to shrink.

“One of the reasons for large-scale project development, apart from economy of scale and low cost, is the possibility for grid connection to Polish TSO, which can host more new PV capacity than Polish DSO,” Wiśniewski added.

In November, a report from the IEO found almost 4,100 solar projects with a combined capacity in excess of 19 GW are ready for implementation in Poland. Wiśniewski said that judging by the amount of projects that have been issued with grid connections or building permits, solar capacity in Poland should reach 25 GW by the end of this year and pass 30 GW by the end of next year.

A challenge for the sector will be dealing with curtailment of solar power experienced in summer, when potential PV generation is higher than demand. IEO's figures suggest 2024 saw approximately 600 GWh of PV power curtailed, with electricity prices negative for almost 200 hours. Wiśniewski said at the Solar Energy Expo in Warsaw last week that Polish district heating companies are investing in green electrification through electricity boilers and thermal energy storage, including seasonal energy storage, will be key.

Wiśniewski also said that due to the high price of electricity for industry in Poland, the country would benefit from simplified grid connections for commercial and industrial (C&I) customers and improvements in the direct line regulation.

Poland’s latest renewables auction, held in December, approved 126 solar projects greater than 1 MW at a maximum price of PLN 334.77 ($83.31)/MWh and 72 solar projects of no more than 1 MW at a maximum price of PLN 388/MWh.

The sixth edition of the Polish government’s residential solar and storage rebate scheme, with a total budget of PLN 400 million, ran between September and December 2024.