Projections from Brazilian solar energy association ABSolar indicate that in 2022, newly installed PV capacity may reach 12 GW, including 8.9 GW from distributed generation, which includes all PV systems not exceeding 5 MW in size, and 3.2 GW from utility-scale solar.

If this growth materializes, Brazil's cumulative PV capacity would increase from 13 GW at the end of 2021 to around 25 GW at the end of this year. In the distributed generation segment, the cumulative installed power would rise from 8.3 to 17.2 GW and in the large-scale sector from 4.6 to 7.8 GW.

Of the BRL 50.8 billion ($9.1 billion) in investments expected for this year, distributed generation would account for around BRL 40.6 billion.

In early January, the Brazilian authorities introduced new rules to ensure that PV systems below 5 MW in size would still be eligible for net metering tariffs until 2045. A grid fee for prosumers will go into effect from 2023, but the economic profitability of rooftop PV and small solar parks is expected to remain high. The strong growth for 2022 will also be the result of the introduction of this grid fee starting from January 2023.